The 14A was published a month after I made this post. In any case, using the numbers from FRMO's financials allow us to derive a longer history of HK's financials (vs the 14A which only includes the past two calendar years), which is useful for understanding their growth trends (or lack thereof in this case).
I intentionally included the formulas in most of my spreadsheet screenshots so that people could manually plug in whatever other numbers they wanted if they had different estimates or new figures came out later (in this case one could just use the 2022 numbers, since the 2023 earnings were negative).
I think the new figure show that valuation at NAV plus operating business is a fallacy. The assets/investment that made up the NTV Cause the operating business to function at a loss
I think the ultimate issue is in valuing the operating biz based on the percent-of-AUM heuristic (for the reasons I mention in the post), though IDK how else they would have done it fairly while not being overgenerous to the liquidators-to-be that spurred on the IPO.
Thanks for this very useful analysis
why don't you use the revenues given for HK in the 14A, why use FRMO?
The 14A was published a month after I made this post. In any case, using the numbers from FRMO's financials allow us to derive a longer history of HK's financials (vs the 14A which only includes the past two calendar years), which is useful for understanding their growth trends (or lack thereof in this case).
I intentionally included the formulas in most of my spreadsheet screenshots so that people could manually plug in whatever other numbers they wanted if they had different estimates or new figures came out later (in this case one could just use the 2022 numbers, since the 2023 earnings were negative).
Firstly, it’s a great write up. You have real skill. Just making sure I wasn’t missing anything. Thanks!!!
Just happy to contribute to the discussion, thank you
I think the new figure show that valuation at NAV plus operating business is a fallacy. The assets/investment that made up the NTV Cause the operating business to function at a loss
I think the ultimate issue is in valuing the operating biz based on the percent-of-AUM heuristic (for the reasons I mention in the post), though IDK how else they would have done it fairly while not being overgenerous to the liquidators-to-be that spurred on the IPO.
They amended the Statment of proposed consolidation or whatever it was called. Total biz value starts at 320 now
Really impressive work you've done on this HK/FRMO complex.
Thank you.