what about the long term trend of decrease in public market firm? I can see after a certain time, revenue gets stagnant. firms move from NYSE to OTC but the global trend of going to private instead of public is a huge tipping point I can see. OTC relies on data from these trading firms, once the main engine turns off, the rest of the car will stop as well.
These additional opportunities come not just from developed economies w/ new/existing public companies that want to access US capital markets, but from emerging economies as well (https://www.tuck.dartmouth.edu/news/articles/where-did-all-the-public-companies-go)). (Though, atm most foreign listing on OTCM are from Canada, Japan, UK, and Australia).
In any case, even if revenues stagnate, it does not necessarily make OTCM a bad investment depending ultimately on the price you pay and FCF/sh (ie. how they manage their margins).
(Note that I triaged my OTCM position around $55-$52 in 1H2024 to fund other positions and I should have updated that to this post, but I think I just did it as a stack note or in a more recent portfolio review post or something. I'd be an interested buyer during a market pull-back, but I think the CAGR doesn't meet the opportunity cost hurdle vs some other ideas I'm looking at or holding.)
what about the long term trend of decrease in public market firm? I can see after a certain time, revenue gets stagnant. firms move from NYSE to OTC but the global trend of going to private instead of public is a huge tipping point I can see. OTC relies on data from these trading firms, once the main engine turns off, the rest of the car will stop as well.
Something to keep in mind is that, while the number of public US-based companies is indeed declining over time (https://www.bluetrust.com/blogs/why-has-the-number-of-public-companies-declined/), the number of listed international companies is rising.
These additional opportunities come not just from developed economies w/ new/existing public companies that want to access US capital markets, but from emerging economies as well (https://www.tuck.dartmouth.edu/news/articles/where-did-all-the-public-companies-go)). (Though, atm most foreign listing on OTCM are from Canada, Japan, UK, and Australia).
In any case, even if revenues stagnate, it does not necessarily make OTCM a bad investment depending ultimately on the price you pay and FCF/sh (ie. how they manage their margins).
(Note that I triaged my OTCM position around $55-$52 in 1H2024 to fund other positions and I should have updated that to this post, but I think I just did it as a stack note or in a more recent portfolio review post or something. I'd be an interested buyer during a market pull-back, but I think the CAGR doesn't meet the opportunity cost hurdle vs some other ideas I'm looking at or holding.)